Late August is truly when Hope Springs Eternal for college football fans.
Unfortunately on the eve of the
season opener for the Weber State Wildcats, the expectations for Mickey Mental’s
Wildcats are the lowest they’ve been in about a decade. Over the last few
seasons, Weber has gone from the glory days of being a perennial top 25 team
who won 4 Big Sky Championships under the leadership of the legendary Jay Hill, to a team with a losing record, dropping games
to the like of Idaho State…at home...Ugh.
My heart, my gut, and my brain
are all giving me different predictions for what is going to happen this
season. Let’s take a look at each game.
Game 1 - @ James Madison
JMU has continued their winning
ways since jumping up to FBS. They are good. In fact, they are the heavy favorite to win the Sun Belt Championship this year. They’ve got a QB coming back who threw for a gazillion yards last season.
It’s a road game 2000 miles away. The Dukes have crushed the hearts of the
Wildcats on multiple occasions. This time, the crushing may be a bit more one
sided.
Prediction – LOSS
Game 2 - @ Arizona
What better way to remind FCS athletes that they weren’t good enough to go to a P4 school than to go get
your ass kicked for a healthy sum of money at the beginning of each season? I understand
why these games are scheduled, but I really don’t like them. There has got to
be another way to fund smaller school’s athletic programs other than the annual
Labor Day weekend beatdown. I’m good with Weber playing up against a G5 school
(USU, Nevada, Wyoming - all great options) but I feel like these types of games
just injure team confidence early in the season.
Prediction – LOSS
Game 3 - @ McNeese
This is where the season really
starts. We will learn a lot more about the team that we have after the trip to Lake Charles, LA.
The Cowboys fired their coach last year and hired an old coach (Matt Viator)
who coached at McNeese for nearly 2 decades. This game should be pretty evenly
matched. McNeese is expected to be a middle of the pack in the Southland this
year. On paper, we may even be favored, but after 3 weeks of intense travel, I’m
skeptical that the Cat’s can get it done. I’m split on this one.
Prediction My heart says WIN
My gut says LOSS
My
brain says LOSS
Game 4 – vs Butler
After three weeks on the road the
Cats will finally have a game at Stewart Stadium against Pioneer League member Butler.
Now for those who don’t know, the Pioneer league does not offer football
scholarships, and unsurprisingly, does not attract the highest caliber players.
Weber State should handle the Bulldogs easily. If not, we’re in big trouble.
Prediction – WIN
Game 5 - @ UC Davis
UC Davis is going to be good this
season. Along with Montana and Montana State, they are predicted to be the
class of the Big Sky. The Wildcats’ confidence will be a bit higher after
beating Butler, but it won’t be enough to beat the Aggies.
Prediction – LOSS
Game 6 – vs Sacramento State
Sac State got a little too big
for their britches earlier this year when they made a very public campaign to
join the Pac 12 and jump up to FBS. Unfortunately for them, neither of those
things happened, and the Hornets will be going to FCS Independence next year.
To their credit, they’ve recruited a TON of new high talent players and have
had a huge surge in cash to the program. Will this translate to winning on the
field? Meh… I’m skeptical. I think Sac has other issues that may prevent them
from winning this season, like being way too distracted with jumping up to FBS,
raising money, etc. This is one of those games that could go either way.
Prediction My heart says WIN
My
gut says LOSS
My
brain says TOSS UP
Game 7 - @ Portland State
At this point in the season, the
Cats likely will be in the 2-4ish range. Fortunately, the schedule eases up for
a couple weeks, starting with a trip to Portland State. The Viks lost to Tarleton
State in Week Zero, 42 – 0. Ouch. PSU will challenge Northern Colorado for worst team
in the Big Sky this year. The Cats will win this game.
Prediction – WIN
Game 8 – vs Eastern Washington
This shapes up to be a huge game for the
Wildcats. If we have any hope of a winning season, we’ve got to get this game. A
home game against a similarly matched team in the crisp October air at Stewart
Stadium. I can hardly wait. Circle this one. This is going to be a great game. Leaning
on my heart prediction with this one, but I see the Wildcats winning here.
Prediction – WIN
Game 9 – vs Montana
There are few things I hate more
than seeing 2,000 Montana fans congregated together on the northwest side of Stewart
Stadium cheering on the Griz. Makes me sick. Sadly, that will surely be the
case this season, as Montana is not only a favorite to win the Big Sky, but a potential
national title contender. Do you believe in miracles? I do. But not this year.
We used up our miracle against Montana up in Missoula last season.
Prediction – LOSS
Game 10 – @ Montana State
The Bobcats made a national
championship game appearance last season, are picked to win the conference
this year, and are poised for another deep playoff run. They’ve reloaded at
several key positions. Some might say this is a “trap” game for MSU, with them
looking forward to UC Davis and Montana in the following two weeks, but I think
the Bobcats are just too good. Weber ain’t winning this one.
Prediction – LOSS
Game 11 - @ Idaho State
Circle the calendar, make the
trip. In what has been a renewed rivalry over the past few years, the Wildcats
will battle to retake the Train Bell Trophy. This is the game I’m most excited
for this season. Both teams should be evenly matched. Although, seeing the
Bengals give UNLV all they could handle in Week Zero makes me a little nervous. I
really don’t know what this game will look like. I’m split on this one, but man,
I’m excited to watch.
Prediction My heart says WIN
My
gut says WIN
My
brain says TOSS UP
Game 12 – vs Northern Arizona
By this point in the season, the Wildcats
will have lost quite a few games, fan interest will be low, weather will be
cold, and Stewart Stadium will be mostly empty as we welcome NAU to town in the
“Red Rock Rivalry”. (BTW, is this really a rivalry?)…The Lumberjacks have the
best QB in the league in Ty Pennington and are expected to return to the
playoffs this season. The Jacks will have a lot to play for in this game, while the
Wildcats will mostly be playing for pride at this point. I don’t think we’ll
get it done.
Prediction – LOSS
When you group the games into
categories it looks something like this:
Should win: vs Butler, @ Portland
State
Winnable: @ McNeese, vs Sac
State, vs Eastern Washington, @ Idaho State
Likely Loss: @ UC Davis, vs
Montana, @ Montana State, vs Northern Arizona
Definite Loss: @ James Madison, @
Arizona
My heart tells me that things could
go better than expected, could see this team going as high as 7-5 with wins
over all the “should win” and “winnable” teams and then surprising one more
team. It pains me to say it, but I don’t think we can realistically expect any
better than that. Coach Mental will be on the hot seat this season, and unless
he wins 7 games, I think he’s likely gone.
My brain tells me that this is going to be a rough year for the Wildcats. There are so many unknowns with
this team. We have a QB with zero college experience. Lost 11 key players in the
transfer portal, open with 4 of the first 5 games on the road, 4
coaches turning over, and the 2nd toughest schedule in FCS this year. I
could see this team repeating the 4-8 campaign we suffered through last season.
My gut tells me that we will land somewhere in the middle. We have enough talent to compete and have several key contributors from last season returning (Davion Godley, Colter May, Ishaan Daniels, Easton Payne, Gavin Ortega, etc.) My gut also tells me that this team’s success is dependent on Coach Mental keeping the locker room. This team ain’t going 12-0, and there are going to be some low points this season. We will truly see what kind of leader Coach Mental is this season.
Final Prediction – Putting my
heart, my gut, and my brain together, I’m predicting the Wildcats to go 5-7
this season, a one game improvement from last season, but still not anywhere near where we want to be.
I really hope I’m wrong. But either way, I’ll be watching every snap.
Go Wildcats
Michael Garlick
Excellent analysis! Oct 11 will see a lot of former players attending. Not sure if that makes a difference to the players or staff, but if so, might throw that into the mix.
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