Is the Sky Falling in Ogden?

The Wildcats are not making the FCS playoffs. Period. Full stop. Goodbye. Adios. However you want to say it, it ain't happening.

The Wildcats' last hope died in Sacramento, California on Saturday night in front of 15,000 Hornets fans ready and eager to dance on the grave of Weber's postseason hopes.

How many heartbreakers can we have in a single season? One is just unlucky, two is absurd, three is ridiculous, and four is... cruel?... Quick recap of our 4 FCS losses this year:

• Lamar - Lost 17-16. Drove the entire length of the field in the 4th quarter only to be stopped at the goal line instead of kicking the short field goal, which would have put us up by 2 with 2 minutes to go. Got the ball back and missed a tough FG as time expired. Heartbreaker #1
• McNeese - Lost 28-26. Two failed 2 point conversion attempts during the game. Got stopped on downs in our final drive a mere 10 yards from field goal range. Never got the chance to attempt a game winning FG. Heartbreaker #2
• Northern Colorado - Lost 21-17. Probably the worst lost for Weber in the past decade. A game the Cats had no business losing, but I guess when you fumble 6 times including twice at the goal line you're not going to win many of those games. Midway through the 3rd, Weber still had a 99.7% probably of winning according to ESPN analytics. Does God hate the Wildcats? Heartbreaker #3
• Sacramento State - After a back and forth shoot out and legendary performances from Damon Bankston and Jacob Sharp, the Cats fall in double OT, missing a FG on the final play. Heartbreaker #4

I think most Wildcat fans would agree - it's been a tough season. You feel for these young players who put it on the line each week and then repeatedly come oh so close to a victory. You feel for the coaches who get it 90% right, but we can't seem to get that last 10% to propel us to victory.

Many fans will be quick to explain why they think this is happening, with some validity.

"We lost guys in the transfer portal!" Well, yes that's true, but also true for everyone else in the Big Sky. Unfortunately I think that is going to be the status quo going forward until the powers that be set some sort of regulation on collectives and NIL payments, but let's not get into that right now. We lost a few studs, that is true. Namely, Marque Collins, Jack Kelly, and Abraham Williams. Each of those are all conference caliber players. Ouch.

"We are dealing with injuries!" Sure, but who isn't. Our LB crew especially has been bitten by the injury bug, but that's part of the game. Next man up, or so the coaching cliché goes.

"Coach Mental needs to go!" Woah. Hold on just a second. Are we really that quick to feed Micky to the wolves? I mean, literally 4 plays difference and we'd be singing his praises at 6-1.

We just lived through the Golden Age of Wildcat Football from 2016 - 2022, thanks in large part to Jay Hill. He is the GOAT at Weber. The best. Put up a statue. No one even comes close, but honestly, did we think Mental would pick up right where he left off. I mean, it took Jay 3 seasons to make the playoffs (I know Jay inherited a train wreck, but still).

I really think we ought to pump the brakes on the whole "Fire Coach Mental" thing. The guy is a winner. He killed it at Notre Dame College. He knows what it takes to win at the FCS level from coaching under Jay. We are within a frogs hair of being 6-1. If the Cat's can continue to improve, this will be a playoff team next year.

I was super impressed with the guys level of belief and fight in the Sac State game. They could have rolled over and died there in the fourth but they came back and gave the Hornets ALL they could handle. Kyle Thompson makes that kick and we may have much different take today. That close...again. What is the issue then? Why do we keep coming up short? What is preventing us from making the plays late in 4th quarter to win?! That's the million dollar question.

That being said, Wildcat Nation just had a taste of the good life under Hill and won't settle for anything less. I think if Mental fails to get us to the playoff next year, his seat is going to be getting very hot, and if we miss out 4 years in a row - he's gone.

Now enough with the negativity. The title of this post, "Is the Sky Falling in Ogden?" My answer is a resounding NO. I know these losses hurt. It sucks to lose. But, we still have a lot to play for.

1. Two Rivalry Games

Northern Arizona (Red Rock Rivalry) and Idaho State (Train Bell Trophy, which they need to resurrect btw). Now, I wouldn't say these are real heated rivalries as of the last decade. But they could be. Weber needs to send a message that we own our rivals. Rivalries are what make college football great. Whatever motivation can be conjured up to beat the Jacks and the Stripes needs to come forth with full force. We need rivals and we need wins over our rivals.

2. A Winning Season

If we win out, we would be 7-5. All of the games on our schedule are winnable. Idaho is a stretch, but hey we beat Montana so I'm gonna say Idaho is beatable as well. Finishing the season strong would go long way in the development of our young guys. 7-5 while not great, and likely still missing the playoff is at least a winning record and still a semi-respectable season.

3. Play the Spoiler

Ah, remember last November when everyone was all like "Weber Sucks" and then we beat #4 Idaho. Yeah, that was fun. Well imagine how much fun it would be if we did that again, this time in Moscow, and this time to spoil the Vandals hopes of making the playoff. Idaho has just squeaked out some close wins and looks very beatable. Watch out Idaho. We're coming for you.

4. Send the Seniors Off with a Win

Senior Day will be against Cal Poly this year, and we should beat them. Should being the key word. Senior Day is a special day for guys that will be playing what will likely be the final competitive football game of their lives. Got to go out on a positive note, especially for the 12-15 seniors who've had significant playing time this year.

So, I again pose the question, "Is the Sky Falling in Ogden?" Well, no, but keep an umbrella handy. We've still got a lot to play for but if we roll over and die in these last four games, there are going to be some very grumpy Wildcats around, myself included.

This bye week will be a good chance for the team to reset, and get healthy and mentally prepare for the final push to salvage this season into something respectable.

Go Wildcats

Michael Garlick